LINEBURG


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Ï°è°®±ò - - 197,438 497,543 901,855
Ï°è°®±ò §àò°àò, â±åã® 225,000 468,000 782,438 1,199,543 1,709,155
ofcf2r/23
Ðà±·åò ¤°óãèµ ®òò®ê®â ±°å¤±òâ: ò嵮ᱫó¦èâàíèå, °å¬®íò è íà«®ãè

  ’嵮ᱫó¦èâàíèå/°å¬®íò
• ”èê±è°®âàíí»å è ïå°å¬åíí»å §àò°àò» íà å¤èíèöó (MC) ±å©·à±
±®±òàâ«ÿþò ±®®òâåò±òâåíí® 80% è 20% â ®áùå© ±ó¬¬å 10,000. Ï®ýò®¬ó â
1997 㮤ó ô®°¬ó«à ï°è°®±òà §àò°àò íà ò嵮ᱫó¦èâàíèå/°å¬®íò ï®
ï°®åêòó áó¤åò è¬åòü âè¤:
[.8 *(MC 96)*(1+ÈÍ”96) * ‘á»ò96) + (.2*(MC96) *(1+ÈÍ” 96) * ‘á»ò96 *(‘á»ò97) / (‘á»ò96)) ]
- (MC 96)*(1+ÈÍ”96)* ‘á»ò96)
  è«è
  (.8 * 450 + .2 * 450 * 45,000/30,000) - 450 = 45 ¬«í. °óá.
  Ýò® ï°è⮤èò ê òàꮬó ï°è°®±òó 㮤®â»µ §àò°àò íà ò嵮ᱫó¦èâàíèå:
  (ò»±. °.) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
‘á»ò (å¤èíèö») 30,000 45,000 54,000 59,400 65,340 71,874
  Èíô«ÿöèÿ 50% 30% 25% 20% 15% 15%

  Çàò°àò» íà ®á±«.
± ï°®åêò®¬ 495,000 678,600 874,575 1,084,239 1,290,832
  áå§ ï°®åêòà 300,000 450,000 585,000 731,250 877,500 1,009,125
Ï°è°®±ò 45,000 93,600 143,325 206,739 281,707
 
  Íà«®ãè: ‘·èòàåò±ÿ, ·ò® ®áùàÿ ±ó¬¬à íà«®ã®â - 40% ®ò â૮⻵ ¤®µ®¤®â.
ofcf2r/24
Çà¬å·àíèå ®á ମ°òè§àöèè

  Ï°å¤ï®«®¦è¬, ó íà± 5-«åòíÿÿ øêà«à ମ°òè§àöèè, à ®á®°ó¤®âàíèå,
§àêóï«åíí®å ﮤ ï°®åêò À΂Ç, áó¤åò å¦åã®¤í® à¬®°òè§è°®âàòü±ÿ íà
240,000 ¤®««à°®â.
  À¬®°òè§àöèÿ íå ®òí®±èò±ÿ ê ¤åíå¦í»¬ §àò°àòà¬, í® ®íà â»·èòàåò±ÿ è§
±ó¬¬» íà«®ã®â è ¤àåò íà«®ã®âóþ §àùèòó. …±òü ¤âà ⮧¬®¦í»µ ±ï®±®áà
âê«þ·èòü ମ°òè§àöèþ â ï°®ãí®§ ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â
• ‚»·å±òü ମ°òè§àöè®íí»å §àò°àò» è§ ·è±ò®ã® ¤®µ®¤à â¬å±òå ± ¤°óãè¬è
觤尦êà¬è, òå¬ ±à¬»¬ ±óùå±òâåíí® ±®ê°àòèâ áà§ó í૮㮮᫮¦åíèÿ.
Çàòå¬ â»·å±òü íà«®ãè, ®áÿ§àíí»å ê óï«àòå ï® ýò®© ±®ê°àùåíí®© áà§å, à
ï®±«å ±í®âà ï°èáàâèòü ମ°òè§àöèþ ¤«ÿ ﮫó·åíèÿ ôàêòè·å±ê®ã®
¤åíå¦í®ã® ï®ò®êà
• Ëèá® íå â»·èòàòü ମ°òè§àöèþ è§ á৻ í૮㮮᫮¦åíèÿ, °à±±·èòàòü è
â»·å±òü íà«®ãè, ®áÿ§àíí»å ê óï«àòå ï® ï®«í®© áà§å, à §àòå¬ ±í®âà
ï°èáàâèòü íà«®ã®â»å «üã®ò» ï® à¬®°òè§àöèè: ମ°òè§àöèþ, ó¬í®¦åííóþ
íà ±òàâêó íà«®ãà
  ‚ ¤àíí®¬ ï°è¬å°å ¬» ⮱ﮫü§ó嬱ÿ ïå°â»¬ ±ï®±®á®¬ ó·åòà ମ°òè§àöèè
  Îá°àòèòå âíè¬àíèå, ·ò® â °à±·åò âê«þ·àåò±ÿ «èøü òà ମ°òè§àöèÿ, ê®ò®°àÿ
⮧íèêàåò íåï®±°å¤±òâåíí® â °å§ó«üòàòå ï°®åêòà
ofcf2r/25
“Ê®íå·íàÿ öåíí®±òü" ï°®åêòà

 
  …±«è ï°®¤®«¦èòü ﮫ®¦èòå«üí»å ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ¤® áå±ê®íå·í®±òè, ò®
®á»·í® ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ï°®ãí®§è°óþò±ÿ ï® ã®¤à¬ ¤® ¤®±òè¦åíèÿ
ï°®åêò®¬ ±òàáè«üí®ã® ó°®âíÿ °àá®ò» (±òàáè«üí»© °®±ò è ï®±ò®ÿíí»å ¤®«è
ï°èừè), à ±«å¤óþùè© §à ýòè¬ ã®¤ í৻âàåò±ÿ “ê®íå·í»¬ 㮤®¬”. ‘ ýòèµ
ï®° ±òàáè«üí»å ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ®öåíèâàþò±ÿ êàê íå觬åíí»å ("ê®íå·íàÿ
öåíí®±òü”)
  Τíàê® ï°è ±óùå±òâóþùèµ â Ю±±èè â»±®êèµ ó·åòí»µ ±òàâêൠê®íå·íàÿ
öåíí®±òü ᮫üøèí±òâà èíâå±òèöè®íí»µ ï°®åêò®â, ⮧¬®¦í®, áó¤åò
¬èíè¬à«üí®©




ofcf2r/26
Ðå§ó«üòàò» ï°®ãí®§®â â ±®â®êóïí®±òè ¤àþò ï°®ãí®§è°ó嬻å
¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ï® ï°®åêòó

(ò»±. °.) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
‘á»ò (ï°è°®±ò)
‘á»ò (å¤èíèö») 15,000 24,000 29,400 35,340 41,874
„®µ®¤» 9,000,000 18,720,000 28,665,000 41,347,800 56,341,467
Çàò°àò» (ï°è°®±ò ±á»òà)
‘»°üå 3,000,000 2,280,000 4,238,000 6,593,000 9,668,000 13,402,000
’°ó¤ 108,000 148,200 234,000 280,800 322,920
‘®ö®áå±ïå·åíèå 42,120 57,798 91,260 109,512 125,939
Ý«åêò°è·å±òâ® 225,000 468,000 782,438 1,199,543 1,709,155
Îᱫó¦èâàíèå/°å¬®íò 45,000 93,600 143,325 206,739 281,707
À¬®°òè§àöèÿ 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000
Ýê®í®¬èÿ ï® ±»°üþ 722,304 917,326 1,119,138 1,309,391
„®µ®¤» ¤® óï«àò» íà«®ã®â 6,059,880 14,196,706 21,498,303 30,762,344 41,569,137
Íà«®ãè (40%) 2,423,952 5,678,682 8,599,321 12,304,938 16,627,655
„®µ®¤» ï®±«å óï«. íà«®ã®â 3,635,928 8,518,024 12,898,982 18,457,406 24,941,482
Îá°àòíàÿ ମ°òè§àöèÿ 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000
„åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ï°®êòà 3,875,928 8,758,025 13,138,984 18,697,409 25,181,486
Ï®ò°åáí®±òü â ®á. êàïèòà«å (2,700,120) (2,305,478) (2,838,425) (3,620,571) (4,377,127)
Ïå°âè·í»å èíâå±òèöèè (1,470,000) (400,000)
—è±ò»å ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè (1,470,000) 775,808 6,452,547 10,300,559 15,076,838 20,804,360

ofcf2r/27
Íà±ê®«üê® ïå°å¬åí·èâ» ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ï® ï°®åêòó?

  Ðà±±¬®ò°è¬ ¤âà °à§«è·í»µ ±öåíà°èÿ:
1) ‚» - ýê®í®¬è·å±êè© ¤è°åêò®° °®±±è©±ê®ã® ï°å¤ï°èÿòèÿ ï®
ï°®è§â®¤±òâó íå°¦àâåþùå© ±òà«è. “ âà± ò°è èí®±ò°àíí»µ
ï®ò°åáèòå«ÿ, ﮤïè±àâøèµ ¤®ã®â®°» íà §àêóïêó â 1997 㮤ó
ï°®¤óêöèè íà ®áùóþ ±ó¬¬ó 3 ¬«í. ¤®««à°®â
2) ‚» - ýê®í®¬è·å±êè© ¤è°åêò®° °®±±è©±ê®ã® ï°å¤ï°èÿòèÿ ï®
ï°®è§â®¤±òâó ø®ê®«à¤à, ï°®¤àþùåã®±ÿ â ¬àãà§èíൠè êè®±êàµ. Ï®
‚àøè¬ ï°®ãí®§à¬, ®áúå¬ ±á»òà â 1997 ã®¤ó ±®±òàâèò 3 ¬«í.
¤®««à°®â.
  Êàê®âà âå°®ÿòí®±òü ò®ã®, ·ò® ®áúå¬ ±á»òà â «þᮬ è§ ï°å¤ï°èÿòè©
®êà¦åò±ÿ íà 5% ¬åíüøå ®¦è¤à嬮ã®?


Êàê ã®â®°è«®±ü °àíåå, µ®°®øè© ï°®ãí®§ ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â
¤®«¦åí âê«þ·àòü â ±åáÿ «ó·øè©, µó¤øè© è íàè᮫åå
âå°®ÿòí»© ±öåíà°è©


ofcf2r/28
Ï°®ãí®§ ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â ¬®¦åò §àâè±åòü ®ò 觬åíåíè© â 󱫮âèÿµ
¤åÿòå«üí®±òè

  Ðà±±¬®ò°è¬ ¤âà ±öåíà°èÿ:
1) ‚» ýê®í®¬è·å±êè© ¤è°åêò®° ï°å¤ï°èÿòèÿ, â»ïó±êàþùåã® ®¤å¦¤ó, â
®±í®âí®¬ °ó·í®© °àá®ò».
2) ‚» ýê®í®¬è·å±êè© ¤è°åêò®° ïå°âè·í®ã® ï°®è§â®¤èòå«ÿ ±òà«è.
  …±«è â áó¤óùå¬ ã®¤ó öåí» íà ý«åêò°è·å±òâ° áó¤óò íà 10% â»øå, ·å¬
®¦è¤à«®±ü, ò® â êàꮩ ¬å°å ýò® ï®â«èÿåò íà èò®ã®â»å öèô°» ¤åíå¦í»µ
ï®ò®ê®â ï® ï°®åêòó ¤«ÿ êত®ã® è§ ýòèµ ï°å¤ï°èÿòè©?




Ï®¤®áí»å ±®®á°à¦åíèÿ ¤®«¦í» ⮩òè â ±®±òàâ ï°®ãí®§à
¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â ± °à§í»¬è ±öåíà°èÿ¬è



ofcf2r/29
Ï°è¬å°: ï®·å¬ó âà¦í» ò®·í®±òü è °åà«è§¬

  ‚» °óê®â®¤ÿùè© ê°å¤èòí»© °àá®òíèê ¬®±ê®â±ê®ã® áàíêà. ÀÎ‚Ç ï°®±èò ó
‚àøåã® áàíêà ê°å¤èò íà ôèíàí±è°®âàíèå ï°®åêòà ï® ï°®è§â®¤±òâó í®â®©
ï°®¤óêöèè - ±êå©òá®°¤®â. Ï°å¤ï°èÿòèå ï°å¤®±òàâè«® ‚ଠ±«å¤óþùèå
±âå¤åíèÿ ® ï°®åêòå.
• Ï® ¬íåíèþ °óê®â®¤±òâà À΂Ç, ±êå©òá®°¤» ±òàíóò µ®°®øè¬ ¤®ï®«íåíèå¬ ê
òåêóùå¬ó ±ïåêò°ó ï°®¤óêöèè: ¤®°®¦í»¬, ò°åµê®«å±í»¬ è ﮤ°®±òê®â»¬
âå«®±èïå¤à¬. ‘òàòè±òèêà ï®ê৻âàåò 25% 㮤®â®© °®±ò ±ï°®±à íà ±êå©òá®°¤».
Ðóê®â®¤±òâ® ï°®ãí®§è°óåò â ïå°â®¬ 㮤ó ®áúå¬ ±á»òà ⠰৬å°å 12,000 å¤èíèö
• Ï°å¤ï°èÿòèå µ®·åò §àê®í·èòü ±ò°®èòå«ü±òâ® í®â®ã® ï°®è§â®¤±òâåíí®ã® ê®°ïó±à,
ê®ò®°®å ã®ò®â® íà 60%, ã¤å áó¤åò ó±òàí®â«åí® í®â®å ®á®°ó¤®âàíèå ¤«ÿ «èíèè
ï°®è§â®¤±òâà ±êå©òá®°¤®â. ÀÎ‚Ç ±å©·à± è¬ååò íà ±ê«à¤å ¬àòå°èà«» ¤«ÿ â»ïó±êà
25,000 ±êå©òá®°¤®â
• ÀÎ‚Ç µ®·åò ﮫó·èòü ¤®«ã®±°®·í»© ê°å¤èò ¤«ÿ §àâå°øåíèÿ ±ò°®èòå«ü±òâà è
§àêóïêè í®â®ã® ®á®°ó¤®âàíèÿ. Çàò°àò» ï® â»ï«àòå ï°®öåíò®â âê«þ·åí» â ï°è°®±ò
ï°®è§â®¤±òâåíí»µ 觤尦åê, ê®ò®°»å ±®±òàâ«ÿþò 80% ®áúå¬à ±á»òà. Ï°è°®±ò
ï®ò°åáí®±òå© â ®á®°®òí®¬ êàïèòà«å áó¤åò ôèíàí±è°®âàòü±ÿ òàêè¬ ®á°à§®¬: 50%
§à ±·åò ±á»òà ﮤ°®±òê®â»µ âå«®±èï央â è 50% §à ±·åò ê°àòê®±°®·í»µ ê°å¤èò®â
(ﮤ 80% 㮤®â»µ)
• ‘å©·à± ï°å¤ï°èÿòèå °àá®òàåò â ﮫ®âèíó ¬®ùí®±òè è ®êóïàåò ±åáÿ
ofcf2r/30
Ï°®åêò ±êå©òá®°¤®â À΂Ç: ï°®ãí®§ ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â

„®ïóùåíèÿ (â±å öèô°» â $):
ÀÎ‚Ç ¤à«® ‚ଠ‘á»ò â 1 㮤ó (å¤èíèö») 12,000
–åíà §à å¤èíèöó $ 45
±«å¤óþùè©
⮩ °®±ò ±á»òà 25%
ï°®ãí®§ ¤åíå¦í»µ ‘ò®è¬®±òü ®á®°ó¤®âàíèÿ 50,000 (ମ°òè§àöèÿ §à 10 «åò)
ï®ò®ê®â ‘ò®è¬®±òü ±ò°®èòå«ü±òâà 80,000
Îáùàÿ ±ò®è¬®±òü §¤àíèÿ 200,000 (ମ°òè§àöèÿ §à 25 «åò)
Cost for Production and Sales 80%
Íà«®ãè 40% â૮⻵ ¤®µ®¤®â
‘òàíåòå «è ‚»
ôèíàí±è°®âàòü î¤ 0 î¤ 1 î¤ 2 î¤ 3
‘á»ò (å¤èíèö») 12,000 15,000 18,750
ï°®åêò?
–åíà §à å¤èíèöó 45 45 45
À¬®°òè§àöèÿ ®á®°ó¤®â. 5,000 5,000 5,000
À¬®°òè§àöèÿ §¤àíèÿ 8,000 8,000 8,000

î¤ 0 î¤ 1 î¤ 2 î¤ 3
ԇȘ 540,000 675,000 843,750
ȧ¤å°¦êè ï°®è§â-âà (432,000) (540,000) (675,000)
Íà«®ãè (43,200) (54,000) (67,500)
Èíâå±òèöèè (130,000)
À¬®°òè§àöèÿ 13,000 13,000 13,000
—è±ò»© ¤åíå¦í»© ï®ò®ê (130,000) 77,800 94,000 114,250

ofcf2r/31
„åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ï® ï°®åêòó ±êå©òá®°¤®â ÀÎ‚Ç ò°åáóþò ¤à«üíå©øå©
°àá®ò»
  Ï°è àíà«è§å ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â ï® ï°®åêòó ±êå©òá®°¤®â ÀÎ‚Ç ®ïà±à©òå±ü
±«å¤óþùèµ ó§êèµ ¬å±ò:
• Íå®áµ®¤è¬®±òü â êàïèòà«å ¤«ÿ ó¤®â«åòâ®°åíèÿ ï®ò°åáí®±òè ⠮᮰®òí»µ
±°å¤±òâൠ⠱âÿ§è ±
– §àêóïꮩ ±»°üÿ, íà·èíàÿ ± 㮤à 2
– ïà¤åíèå¬ ±á»òà ﮤ°®±òê®â»µ âå«®±èï央â êàê §à¬åíèòå«å©
– óâå«è·åíèå¬ ¤åáèò®°±ê®© §à¤®«¦åíí®±òè
– ï°®¤à¦å© ï® áà°òå°ó Êàêèå ï®ï°àâêè ±¤å«àþò
¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ï®
• Ï°®ãí®§ ±á»òà âå±ü¬à ®ïòè¬è±òè·åí
– Íà ·å¬ ®±í®âàí 25% 㮤®â®© °®±ò? ï°®åêòó ᮫åå ò®·í»¬è è
°åà«è±òè·í»¬è?
• Ðà±±¬®ò°åòü è±ï®«ü§®âàíèå ±óùå±òâóþùèµ §¤àíè©
– ‚®§¬®¦í® â ±âÿ§è ± ¬à«®© §àã°ó§ê®© (50%)
– „åøåâ«å, ·å¬ §àâå°øåíèå ±ò°®èòåü±òâà
î¤ 0 î¤ 1 î¤ 2 î¤ 3
ԇȘ 540,000 675,000 843,750
ȧ¤å°¦êè ï°®è§â®¤±òâà (432,000) (540,000) (675,000)
Íà«®ãè (43,200) (54,000) (67,500)
Èíâå±òèöèè (130,000)
À¬®°òè§àöèÿ 13,000 13,000 13,000
—è±ò»å ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè (130,000) 77,800 94,000 114,250
ofcf2r/32
Íà ®±í®âå ï°®ãí®§à ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â â»ï®«íÿå¬ ôèíàí±®âóþ
®öåíêó ï°®åêòà

  Ï°å¤ï®«®¦è¬, ÀÎ‚Ç â»ï®«íè«® ï°®ãí®§ ï°è°®±òà ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â ¤«ÿ 5
°à±±¬àò°èâà嬻µ ï°®åêò®â. „åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè è¬åþò òàꮩ âè¤:
 
„åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ®ò ï°®åêò®â
â ò»±. °óá.
î¤ Ï°®åêò A Ï°®åêò B Ï°®åêò C Ï°®åêò D Ï°®åêò E
0 (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000)
1 0 20,000 1,000 0 5,000
2 5,000 20,000 5,500 0 10,000
3 50,000 2,500 8,000 30,000 15,000
4 55,000 20,000 22,000 40,000 20,000
5 30,000 20,000 46,000 50,000 20,000
140,000 82,500 82,500 120,000 70,000
‚±åã®




ofcf2r/33
‚íà·à«å ÀÎ‚Ç ®öåíèò ýòè ï°®åêò» ± ï°è¬åíåíèå¬ ·è±ò®©
ï°èâå¤åíí®© ±ò®è¬®±òè (—Ï‘)
  —è±òàÿ ï°èâå¤åííàÿ ±ò®è¬®±òü (—Ï‘) - «ó·øè© èí±ò°ó¬åíò ¤«ÿ àíà«è§à
ôèíàí±®â®© öå«å±®®á°à§í®±òè ï°®åêòà. Ï°èừü ¤àåò ï°èâå¤åííàÿ
±ò®è¬®±òü áó¤óùèµ ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®±òóï«åíè© §à â»·åò®¬ ±ò®è¬®±òè
ïå°âè·í®© èíâå±òèöèè.
• Ï°è è±ï®«ü§®âàíèè —Ï‘ ï°èâå¤åííàÿ ±ò®è¬®±òü â±åµ áó¤óùèµ ¤åíå¦í»µ
ï®ò®ê®â ¤è±ê®íòè°óåò±ÿ ±®®òâåò±òâóþùè¬ ®á°à§®¬
• Í®°¬à ¤è±ê®íòà °àâíà ï°èừè íà èíâå±òèöèè ± °àâí®© ±òåïåíüþ °è±êà
 
• —Ï‘= [CF1/(1+k) + CF2/(1+k)2 + CF3/(1+k)3 + ........ + CFn/(1+k)n] - I0
• I0 -- ïå°âè·íàÿ èíâå±òèöèÿ,
• CFn -- ·è±ò»© ¤åíå¦í»© ï®ò®ê â 㮤 n,
• k --±òàâêà ¤è±ê®íòà
  Ï°®åêò ± ﮫ®¦èòå«üí®© —Ï‘ ¤àåò ᮫üøå ï°èừè, ·å¬ ò°åáóå¬àÿ í®°¬à
ï°èừè, ò® å±òü, ᮫üøå ±ò®è¬®±òè êàïèòà«à, ï®ýò®¬ó åã® íó¦í® ï°èíÿòü.
…±«è ï°®åêò» ÿâ«ÿþò±ÿ â§à謮è±ê«þ·àþùè¬è, ò® íó¦í® è§á°àòü ï°®åêò ±
íàèâ»±øå© —Ï‘
ofcf2r/34
ȱﮫü§óÿ —Ï‘, ÀÎ‚Ç â»áè°àåò ï°®åêò A

  —Ï‘ á»«à °à±±·èòàíà ï® êত®¬ó ï°®åêòó ± ó·åò®¬ 35% í®°¬» ¤è±ê®íòà.
Êàê âè¤í® è§ òàá«èö», ï°®åêò» ±® ±µ®¤í»¬è ·è±ò»¬è ¤åíå¦í»¬è ï®ò®êà¬è
è¬åþò °à§íóþ ·è±òóþ ï°èâå¤åííóþ ±ò®è¬®±òü
• “ â±åµ ï°®åêò®â —Ï‘ ﮫ®¦èòå«üíà - ®íè ï°è嬫嬻 ¤«ÿ èíâå±òèöè©.
• “ ï°®åêò®â C è D —Ï‘ íè¦å - ®íè ¬åíåå ï°èâ«åêàòå«üí»
• …±«è ï°®åêò» â§à謮è±ê«þ·àþùè, íó¦í® â»á°àòü ï°®åêò ± â»±øå© —Ï‘
– ’àêè¬ ®á°à§®¬, íó¦í® è§á°àòü ï°®åêò À


î¤ Ï°®åêò A Ï°®åêò B Ï°®åêò C Ï°®åêò D Ï°®åêò E
0 (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000)
20,000 1,000 0 5,000
1 0
20,000 5,500 0 10,000
2 5,000
2,500 8,000 30,000 15,000
3 50,000
20,000 22,000 40,000 20,000
4 55,000
20,000 46,000 50,000 20,000
5 30,000
82,500 82,500 120,000 70,000
140,000
‚±åã®
17,286 3,892 15,387 5,769
—Ï‘ 26,315
ofcf2r/35
’åïå°ü ÀÎ‚Ç ®öåíèâàåò ï°®åêò ± ï°è¬åíåíèå¬ âíóò°åííå© í®°¬»
°åíòàáå«üí®±òè (‚ÍÐ)

  ‚íóò°åííÿÿ í®°¬à °åíòàáå«üí®±òè (‚ÍÐ) ®ï°å¤å«ÿåò±ÿ êàê...
 

(CF1/(1+‚ÍÐ) + CF2/(1+‚ÍÐ)2 + CF3/(1+‚ÍÐ)3 + ........ + CFn/(1+‚ÍÐ)n) - I0 =0
 

  „°óãè¬è ±«®âà¬è, è¬åíí® ýòà í®°¬à ¤å«àåò —Ï‘ ï°®åêòà °àâí®© 0
  Íåê®ò®°»å °óê®â®¤èòå«è «þáÿò ‚ÍÐ, òàê êàê ®íà ±â®¤èò ±âå¤åíèÿ ® ï°®åêòå
â ®¤íó öèô°ó, íå ò°åáóÿ °à±·åòà í®°¬» ¤è±ê®íòà, °àâí®© ï°®öåíòí®©
±òàâêó ï® èíâå±òèöèÿ¬ ±® ±µ®¤í®© ±òåïåíüþ °è±êà (±ò®è¬®±òè êàïèòà«à)
  Í® °óê®â®¤èòå«è ¤®«¦í» ®±ò®°®¦í® è±ï®«ü§®âàòü ‚ÍÐ:
• Ï°®åêò íó¦í® ï°èíÿòü, 屫è åã® ‚ÍÐ â»øå ±ò®è¬®±òè êàïèòà«à - èíà·å
ï°å¤ï°èÿòèå ï®íå±åò óá»òêè ®ò °åà«è§àöèè ï°®åêòà
• Ï°®åêò, âê«þ·àþùè© ®ò°èöàòå«üí»å áó¤óùèå ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè (ï®±«å
ò®ã®, êàê ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ừè ﮫ®¦èòå«üí»¬è), ¤à±ò íå±ê®«üê® ‚ÍÐ,
ê®ò®°»å ò°ó¤í® è±ò®«ê®âàòü
• ‚ÍÐ íå ó·èò»âàåò ¬à±øòàá ï°®åêòà
• ‚ÍÐ ¤®ïó±êàåò, ·ò® °àííèå ﮫ®¦èòå«üí»å ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè áó¤óò
°åèíâå±òè°®âàí» ï® í®°¬å ‚ÍÐ, ·ò® ·à±ò® íå ®ï°à⤻âàåò±ÿ

ofcf2r/36
ȱﮫü§óÿ ‚ÍÐ, ÀÎ‚Ç â»áè°àåò ï°®åêò B

  ‚ ¤àíí®¬ ±«ó·àå ‚ÍÐ ¤àåò ¤°ó㮩 °å§ó«üòàò, ·å¬ —Ï‘, ï®ò®¬ó ·ò®
óâå«è·åíèå ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â ﰮ豵®¤èò íà ᮫åå °àííå© ±òà¤èè
±óùå±òâ®âàíèÿ ï°®åêòà. ‚ÍÐ ï°å¤ï®«àãàåò °åèíâå±òè°®âàíèå ýòèµ
¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â ﮤ 83%. Ýò®ã® ±ê®°åå â±åã® íå áó¤åò, 屫è í®°¬à
°à±·åòà —Ï‘ ừà 35%.
î¤ Ï°®åêò A Ï°®åêò B Ï°®åêò C Ï°®åêò D Ï°®åêò E
0 (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000)
1,000 0 5,000
1 0 20,000
5,500 0 10,000
2 5,000 20,000
8,000 30,000 15,000
3 50,000 2,500
22,000 40,000 20,000
4 55,000 20,000
46,000 50,000 20,000
5 30,000 20,000
82,500 120,000 70,000
‚±åã® 140,000 82,500
‚ÍÐ 71% 83% 41% 56% 47%


ÏÐÈÌ…—ÀÍÈ…: „°óãàÿ ï°®á«å¬à ¬åò®¤à ‚ÍÐ - ò°ó¤í®±òü ò®·í®ã® °à±·åòà. Ëó·øå
â±åã® ýò® ¤å«àòü ± ﮬ®ùüþ ꮬïüþòå°à è«è ï°®ã°à¬¬è°ó嬮㮠êà«üêó«ÿò®°à.


ofcf2r/37
’åïå°ü ÀÎ‚Ç ®öåíèâàåò ï°®åêò ± ï°è¬åíåíèå¬ ®êóïà嬮±òè

  Ïå°è®¤ ®êóïà嬮±òè - ýò® ꮫè·å±òâ® «åò, ò°åáóå¬®å ¤«ÿ ⮧¬åùåíèÿ
ïå°âè·í®© èíâå±òèöèè â ï°®åêò
  …å ï°åè¬óùå±òâà:
• Ï°®±ò®òà
• •®°®ø® 㮤èò±ÿ ¤«ÿ ®öåíêè ï°®ø«»µ °åøåíè© è ï°èíÿòèÿ í®â»µ
  —ò® ±«å¤óåò ﮬíèòü ï°è è±ï®«ü§®âàíèè ®êóïà嬮±òè:
• Ìåò®¤ ®êóïà嬮±òè íå ó·èò»âàåò â±å ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè ï® ï°®åêòó, òàê
êàê ®í íå ï°èíè¬àåò â °à±·åò òå ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè, ê®ò®°»å ⮧íèêàþò
ï®±«å ïå°è®¤à ®êóïà嬮±òè. Τíàê® â Ю±±èè ï°®ãí®§ ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â
íà ᮫åå ﮧ¤íèå ïå°è®¤» ê°à©íå §àò°ó¤íåí
• Ìåò®¤ ®êóïà嬮±òè íå ¤è±ê®íòè°óåò ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè, ò® å±òü, íå
ó·èò»âàåò â°å¬åííóþ ±ò®è¬®±òü ±°å¤±òâ è«è ±ò®è¬®±òü êàïèòà«à
ï°å¤ï°èÿòèÿ
• Îêóïà嬮±òü íå ®á«åã·àåò â»á®° ¬å¦¤ó ï°®åêòà¬è °à§í®ã® ¬à±øòàáà
 
ofcf2r/38
‘ è±ï®«ü§®âàíèå¬ ®êóïà嬮±òè, ÀÎ‚Ç â»áè°àåò ï°®åêò B

‘®ã«à±í® ¬åò®¤ó ®êóïà嬮±òè, íó¦í® è§á°àòü ï°®åêò ‚ ± ±à¬»¬ ê®°®òêè¬
±°®ê®¬ ®êóïà嬮±òè



î¤ Ï°®åêò A Ï°®åêò B Ï°®åêò C Ï°®åêò D Ï°®åêò E
0 (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000)
1 0 20,000 1,000 0 5,000
2 5,000 20,000 5,500 0 10,000
3 50,000 2,500 8,000 30,000 15,000
4 55,000 20,000 22,000 40,000 20,000
5 30,000 20,000 46,000 50,000 20,000
‚±åã® 140,000 82,500 82,500 120,000 70,000

2.3 1 3.25 2.6 2.3
Îêóïà嬮±òü




ofcf2r/39
Ìåò®¤» ôèíàí±®â®© ®öåíêè ï°®åêòà: ®á®áùåíèå
Ï°®åêò A Ï°®åêò B Ï°®åêò C Ï°®åêò D Ï°®åêò E
0 (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000)
1 0 20,000 1,000 0 5,000
2 5,000 20,000 5,500 0 10,000
3 50,000 2,500 8,000 30,000 15,000
4 55,000 20,000 22,000 40,000 20,000
5 30,000 20,000 46,000 50,000 20,000
‚±åã® 140,000 82,500 82,500 120,000 70,000

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
—Ï‘ 26,315 17,286 3,892 15,387 5,769
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAA 71% AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
‚ÍÐ 83% 41% 56% 47%
AAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAA 2.3 AAAAAAAAAAAA1
AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Îêóïà嬮±òü 3.25 2.6 2.3
AAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAA AA
  ‚ ±°àâíåíèè ± —Ï‘ ¤°óãèå ¬åò®¤» è¬åþò ±«å¤óþùèå ®ã°àíè·åíèÿ:
• Îêóïà嬮±òü: Íå ó·èò»âàåò â°å¬åííóþ ±ò®è¬®±òü ±°å¤±òâ è íå
ï°èíè¬àåò â °à±·åò ¤åíå¦í»å ï®ò®êè, ﰮ豵®¤ÿùèå ï®±«å íà·à«üí®ã®
ïå°è®¤à ®êóïà嬮±òè
• ‚íóò°åííÿÿ í®°¬à °åíòàáå«üí®±òè: Íå ó·èò»âàåò èí»å ý«å¬åíò»,
ê°®¬å ¤åíå¦í»µ ï®ò®ê®â, ï°å¤ï®«àãàåò, ·ò® ®íè °åèíâå±òè°óþò±ÿ ï®

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